This is a medical blog but if starvation and destructive
storms aren't going to have massive medical
consequences, then what will?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BTW, Monkey Pox is spreading but anyone who had
the smallpox vaccine and possibly the Shingrix
Shingles vaccines are likely (83% according to
results in Africa) to have significant protection.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
But back to a catastrophic prediction for the climate
change/global warming situation.
Given simple warming there are good computer models
which show areas of increasing drought and such.
But in a phase transition it is virtually impossible
to make predictions.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(I already predicted that it is far too late to get
political changes to limit climate change and
we should begin massive mitigation projects.
Chaos would make many of the plans useless.
(Member, Union of Concerned Scientists
AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
A 39-year member, National Press Club (Washington)
6 current FEMA certifications.
"Preparing for Climate Change: Coastal flooding will cost
the U.S. billions of dollars within two decades."
paperback second edition
--------------------------------------------------------------------
One physics department has posted a study
which shows the climate isn't just warming, but may be
entering a phase transition. For non physicists, English for
phase transition is CHAOS.
The earth has gone through previous phase transitions
triggered by things like massive volcanic eruptions.
The threat, of course, is that if we are entering a
phase transition then it won't matter what steps
are taken to reduce CO2 or methane production
or even if they are being removed from the
atmosphere.
There is no way to predict and therefore plan
for any changes in a climatic environment
which is in chaos.
No way to plan for food or water security.
No way to decide how to fight climate change.
Plans to increase albedo over oceans by
generating clouds or other anti-warming plans
might make things worse in a phase transition.
Anyone have any thoughts?
Please leave comments.
Abstract
"
It is proposed, based on the Landau-Ginzburg
Theory of phase transitions, that the transition
of the Earth System from the stable conditions
of the Holocene to the human driven condition
of the Anthropocene is, actually, a phase
transition, a qualitative change away from
its Holocene
equilibrium state. Based on
this physical framework, one obtains the
Anthropocene equation,
the so-called
Great Acceleration and shows that
the Earth System temperature on the
new
equilibrium state diverges from
the average temperature of the Holocene
as the cubic root of the
human intervention,
described by a parameter, H; (ii) the human
induced departure from the
Holocene can be
as drastic as the ones due to natural,
astronomical and geophysical causes;
the susceptibility of the Earth System to
human effects is much more relevant
near the phase
transition. The procedure
to obtain numerical predictions from data
is also exemplified through
one of the existing
proposals to account for human impact on the
Earth’s Holocene equilibrium.
"
