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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Is the earth's atmosphere/climate entering a phase transition (CHAOS)?

This is a medical blog but if starvation and destructive
storms aren't going to have massive medical 
consequences, then what will?
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BTW, Monkey Pox is spreading but anyone who had
the smallpox vaccine and possibly the Shingrix 
Shingles vaccines are likely (83% according to
results in Africa) to have significant protection.
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But back to a catastrophic prediction for the climate
change/global warming situation.

Given simple warming there are good computer models
which show areas of increasing drought and such.
But in a phase transition it is virtually impossible
to make predictions.

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(I already predicted that it is far too late to get 
political changes to limit climate change and 
we should begin massive mitigation projects.
Chaos would make many of the plans useless.

(Member, Union of Concerned Scientists
AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 
A 39-year member, National Press Club (Washington)
6 current FEMA certifications.

"Preparing for Climate Change: Coastal flooding will cost 

the U.S. billions of dollars within two decades."

paperback second edition

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One physics department has posted a study 
which shows the climate isn't just warming, but may be 
entering a phase transition. For non physicists, English for 
phase transition is CHAOS.

The earth has gone through previous phase transitions
triggered by things like massive volcanic eruptions.

The threat, of course, is that if we are entering a 
phase transition then it won't matter what steps 
are taken to reduce CO2 or methane production 
or even if they are being removed from the
atmosphere.

There is no way to predict and therefore plan 
for any changes in a climatic environment 
which is in chaos.

No way to plan for food or water security.
No way to decide how to fight climate change.
Plans to increase albedo over oceans by 
generating clouds or other anti-warming plans
might make things worse in a phase transition.


Anyone have any thoughts? 
Please leave comments.

Abstract 
" It is proposed, based on the Landau-Ginzburg 
Theory of phase transitions, that the transition 
of the Earth System from the stable conditions
 of the Holocene to the human driven condition
 of the Anthropocene is, actually, a phase 
transition, a qualitative change away from
 its Holocene equilibrium state. Based on 
this physical framework, one obtains the 
Anthropocene equation, the so-called 
Great Acceleration and shows that 
the Earth System temperature on the
 new equilibrium state diverges from 
the average temperature of the Holocene
 as the cubic root of the human intervention,
 described by a parameter, H; (ii) the human 
induced departure from the Holocene can be
 as drastic as the ones due to natural, 
astronomical and geophysical causes; 
the susceptibility of the Earth System to 
human effects is much more relevant 
near the phase transition. The procedure 
to obtain numerical predictions from data 
is also exemplified through one of the existing 
proposals to account for human impact on the 
Earth’s Holocene equilibrium. "

 

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